What worked for Jagan in the by-elections : India, News - India Today
Unprecedented 80 per cent voters exercised their right on Tuesday in the crucial by-elections to 18 assembly seats and Nellore Lok Sabha seat in Andhra Pradesh. The bypolls are widely believed to be the "semi-finals" for the 2014 general elections.
The massive turnout of voters at the polling stations is an indication to a possible change in the political dynamics of the state. While it was a do-or-die situation for the ruling Congress party, the outcome of the by-elections is going to decide the political future of YSR Congress party president Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, who has been jailed in connection with his alleged disproportionate assets case.
The counting of votes will take place on June 15 and results will be declared by the same evening.
The polling, which began at 8 am, went on peacefully, barring a few stray incidents of violence and group clashes. There were large queues at several polling stations even at the conclusion of polling at 5 pm and the Election Commission authorities announced that those who were in the queue at the scheduled closure of polling would be allowed to cast their vote.
"The polling percentage is unprecedented. It is expected to touch 80 per cent after the closure of polling. We are compiling the final figures sent by the returning officers," chief electoral officer Bhanwarlal said.
Ramachandrapuram assembly constituency in East Godavari district recorded the maximum polling percentage of 86.53 per cent, followed by 84 per cent in Parkal assembly constituency in Warangal district. The lowest poll percentage was in Tirupati, where 55 per cent voters turned up. The Nellore Lok Sabha constituency registered 68 per cent voting.
According to political observers, the massive turnout of voters has given a clear edge to the fledgling YSR Congress party. According to reports from the battlefield, the YSR Congress party would win not less than 15 assembly seats, besides the Nellore Lok Sabha seat. The Congress and the TDP might win one seat each, while the Telangana Rashtra Samithi is likely to emerge victorious in Parkal assembly seat in Warangal district, the lone seat in the Telangana region that went to bypolls.
In fact, Congress MP from Vijayawada, Lagadapati Rajagopal, who has commissioned an independent pre-poll survey, predicted that Jagan's party would win 12 to the 18 assembly seats. "The Congress has the possibility of winning one to three seats, while the TDP might win two seats. The Parkal assembly seat will go to the TRS," he told the media, immediately after the conclusion of polling in the evening.
While there was generally some sort of sympathy among voters for the YSR Congress party candidates, who had been disqualified for voting against the Congress government on farmer issues, Jagan managed to increase this sympathy multi-fold by explaining to voters as to how he was being targeted by the Congress party in the name of CBI inquiry.
The Kadapa MP's arrest by the CBI on May 27 further compounded the sympathy factor, which was fully exploited by his mother Y S Vijayalakshmi and sister Sharmila in their subsequent road shows. The mother-daughter duo successfully made a martyr out of Jagan and convinced voters that he had become a victim of political vendetta and that the ruling Congress was using CBI as an instrument to defame him.
The Congress could not counter the vendetta campaign of Jagan and his family. In fact, his arrest a couple of weeks before the polling had done more harm than good to the Congress party. While Jagan was able to cash in on the populist schemes introduced by his father, the late Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, and claimed his political legacy, the ruling Congress failed to own up the schemes. Instead of projecting the achievements of the government in the last two years, the Congress leaders focused only on Jagan bashing and that appeared to be counter-productive.
Congress leaders now fear that the victory of YSR Congress party in a majority of seats would prove to be a nemesis for the Kiran Kumar Reddy government, as there could be a large-scale exodus of the ruling party MLAs into YSR Congress.
The Kiran government is surviving on a razor-thin majority in the 294-member assembly with the magic figure being 148. Two MLAs crossed the floor to join the Jagan camp last week, bringing the Congress's strength to 151, while two others had openly extended their support to the YSR leader. If another 10-12 MLAs jump the fence, the Congress government could collapse even if seven MLAs of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen extend support from outside.
For the main opposition, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) headed by N Chandrababu Naidu, the by-election outcome might not make much of a difference as all the seats for which voting was held were held by the Congress earlier. If there is an improvement in his party's voting percentage, Naidu would hope to consolidate it by 2014. However, TDP circles are wary of the "sympathy factor" favouring Jagan's party.
The bypolls also witnessed unprecedented distribution of cash and kind by all political parties to lure the voters. The EC claimed to have seized more than Rs.42 crore in cash, valuable items such as gold and silver worth Rs.12 crore, and two lakh litres of liquor.
"At least 10 times the amount seized is believed to have been distributed among voters," said K J Rao, former Election Commission observer and convenor of Election Watch, India.
